Cyprus has abandoned its historic military neutrality by signing a Status of Forces Agreement with France and a Defence Roadmap with the United States, aiming to deter Turkish aggression and shift the dynamics of the Cyprus problem. However, these agreements provide no binding security guarantees, instead allowing France and the US to expand military access without legal obligation to defend the island in a crisis. The arrangement places Cyprus at risk of heightened vulnerability and regional entrapment, according to expert analysis.

The French SOFA and US Defence Roadmap facilitate operational integration and bolster Cyprus's military infrastructure, but Cyprus bears the financial costs while Western powers maintain maximum operational flexibility with minimal liability. The island’s alignment with Western powers also escalates tensions with Turkey, which views these moves as encroachments on its claimed maritime zones under the ‘Mavi Vatan’ doctrine. This risks aggravating conflict over offshore natural gas resources and maritime control.

Critics warn that Cyprus’s reliance on implicit Western protection is a dangerous gamble that underestimates Turkish resolve and overestimates Western commitment. Moreover, this foreign policy shift has undermined peace negotiations by pushing a maximalist stance on security guarantees, provoking Ankara to pursue a two-state solution and accelerating the island’s partition. The pivot reflects political calculations more than strategic coherence, exposing Cyprus to long-term geopolitical risks without ensuring lasting security.