National Bank of Greece surpasses expectations with strong H1 performance and upgraded 2026 forecasts
The National Bank of Greece reported an underlying net profit of €661 million in the first half of 2024, exceeding initial expectations and prompting Beta Securities to upgrade its forecasts for 2026. The bank achieved a return on tangible equity of 15.5%, surpassing its profitability target, supported by a more favourable interest rate environment and solid lending growth. Performing loans rose by €2.1 billion to €39.1 billion, with new loan disbursements up 30%, driven mainly by corporate sectors such as energy, infrastructure, shipping, and tourism.
Beta Securities raised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate to 2.25%, boosting expectations for net interest income and margins despite lending margin pressures. Additionally, fee income grew 10%, attributed to expansion in investment products and wealth management. Strategic partnerships with Allianz and Dromeus Capital are expected to significantly enhance earnings from 2027 onwards.
The bank’s strong capital base, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 17.3%, provides flexibility for credit growth and shareholder distributions. Beta Securities indicated a possible interim dividend announcement in Q4, though cautioned investors to monitor interest rate developments, credit growth, and capital deployment plans moving forward.
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